Posts

• July 22, 2016

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 22 July 2016

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics

• Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-11 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Reinhard Ellwanger, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• The Case of Serial Disappointment

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison

  Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01

• Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark

  We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• The US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains?

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-9 Robert Fay, James Ketcheson

  Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23

• Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2016-31 Gabriel Bruneau, Ian Christensen, Césaire Meh

  We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, H, H2, H23

• Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov

  This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47

• Financial Inclusion—What’s it Worth?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-30 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann

  The paper studies the determinants of being unbanked in the euro area and the United States as well as the effects of being unbanked on wealth accumulation. Based on household-level data from The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, it first documents that there are, respectively, 3.6 per cent and 7.5 per cent of unbanked households in the two economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G28
• July 15, 2016

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 15 July 2016

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
• July 13, 2016

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Carolyn A. Wilkins, Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments