Staff research

• Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey

  This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15

• Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures

  Staff Working Paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz

  We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23

• Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura

  Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates

• A Framework in Search of an Optimal Margining Policy for Official Institutions: The Canadian Experience

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-9 Tomo Nakashima, Mihai Cosma, Boran Plong

  One of the main outcomes of the global financial crisis has been a series of new regulations imposed on the financial system and specifically on banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32

• Canadian Repo Market Ecology

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-8 Corey Garriott, Kyle Gray

  This is the first of the Financial Markets Department’s descriptions of Canadian financial industrial organization. The document discusses the organization of the repurchase-agreement (repo) market in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23

• The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

  Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin

  This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G11

• The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky

  The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31

• Wait a Minute: The Efficacy of Discounting versus Non-Pecuniary Payment Steering

  Staff Working Paper 2016-8 Angelika Welte

  Merchants who accept credit cards face payment processing fees. In most countries, the no-surcharge rule prohibits them from using surcharges to pass these fees on to customers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G28
• February 29, 2016

  Research Update - February 2016

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete

  Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58