International topics

• Quantitative Easing in a Small Open Economy: An International Portfolio Balancing Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2016-55 Serdar Kabaca

  This paper studies the effects of quantitative easing (QE) in a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with international portfolio balancing. Portfolios are classified as imperfectly substitutable short-term and long-term subportfolios, each including domestic and foreign bonds.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41

• Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander

  Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F14
• November 17, 2016

  Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Jeannine Bailliu, Christopher Hajzler

  Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E6, E61, E65, O, O1, O11, O4, O41
• November 17, 2016

  Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, Q, Q1, Q4, Q41
• November 8, 2016

  Wood, Wheat, Wheels and the Web: Historical Pivots and Future Prospects for Canadian Exports

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the historical evolution and future prospects for Canadian exports.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration

• Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013

  Staff Working Paper 2016-48 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto

  Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44

• The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel

  Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43
• September 20, 2016

  Living with Lower for Longer

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Association des économistes québécois, the Cercle finance du Québec and CFA Québec Québec, Québec

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the adjustments that savers and companies need to make in response to low interest rates, and economic policies that can help.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Potential output, Trade integration

• Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-19 Malik Shukayev, Argyn Toktamyssov

  BIS interbank lending data show that the Great Recession generated large and persistent changes in the international interbank lending positions of various countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the role of changes in international interbank credit flows in transmitting shocks across borders.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
• September 14, 2016

  (S)low for Long and Financial Stability

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lecture London, United Kingdom

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the financial stability risks associated with slow growth and low interest rates, and explores strategies to mitigate them.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy implementation, Potential output