Staff research

• A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard

  Staff Working Paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber

  This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates, Financial services, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58
• March 31, 2016

  Research Update - March 2016

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-3 David Amirault, Naveen Rai

  Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J0, J01, R, R2, R23

• Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation

  Staff Working Paper 2016-13 Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Rosborough

  Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F23, F3, F34

• Capital Structure, Pay Structure and Job Termination

  Staff Working Paper 2016-12 Jason Allen, James R. Thompson

  We develop a model to analyze the link between financial leverage, worker pay structure and the risk of job termination. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that even in the absence of any agency problem among workers, variable pay can be optimal despite workers being risk averse and firms risk neutral.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Labour markets JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, J, J3, J33

• Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey

  This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15

• Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures

  Staff Working Paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz

  We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23

• Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura

  Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates

• A Framework in Search of an Optimal Margining Policy for Official Institutions: The Canadian Experience

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-9 Tomo Nakashima, Mihai Cosma, Boran Plong

  One of the main outcomes of the global financial crisis has been a series of new regulations imposed on the financial system and specifically on banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32

• Canadian Repo Market Ecology

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-8 Corey Garriott, Kyle Gray

  This is the first of the Financial Markets Department’s descriptions of Canadian financial industrial organization. The document discusses the organization of the repurchase-agreement (repo) market in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23