Staff research, Publications
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July 6, 2015
Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2015
The summer Business Outlook Survey points to a diverging outlook across regions. While there are some encouraging signs, owing in part to strengthening U.S. demand, weak oil prices continue to significantly dampen economic perspectives in affected sectors and regions. -
July 6, 2015
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Second-Quarter 2015
The survey results suggest that, overall, business-lending conditions were broadly unchanged during the second quarter of 2015. -
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Managerial Compensation Duration and Stock Price Manipulation
I build a model of optimal managerial compensation where managers each have a privately observed propensity to manipulate short-term stock prices. -
June 30, 2015
Research Update - June 2015
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome. -
Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. -
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Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004
We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years.