G1 - General Financial Markets

• Tractable Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2015-46 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Anh Le, Christian Lundblad

  We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris

  We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, G, G1
• November 19, 2015

  Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe

  As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1

• Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2015-39 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon

  Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2015-37 Gurnain Pasricha, Matteo Falagiarda, Martin Bijsterbosch, Joshua Aizenman

  Using a novel data set on capital control actions in 17 emerging-market economies (EMEs) over the period 2001–11, we provide new evidence on domestic and multilateral (or spillover) effects of capital controls.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42, G, G1, G15

• Downside Variance Risk Premium

  Staff Working Paper 2015-36 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Cédric Okou

  We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus undesirable risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-7 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Miguel Molico, Ben Tomlin

  Because financial and macroeconomic conditions are tightly interconnected, financial stability considerations are an important element of any monetary policy framework. Yet, the circumstances under which it would be appropriate for the Bank to use monetary policy to lean against financial risks need to be more fully specified (Côté 2014).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18

• On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters

  Staff Working Paper 2015-26 Shaofeng Xu

  This paper examines the welfare cost of rare housing disasters characterized by large drops in house prices. I construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with recursive preferences and housing disaster shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21

• Managerial Compensation Duration and Stock Price Manipulation

  Staff Working Paper 2015-25 Josef Schroth

  I build a model of optimal managerial compensation where managers each have a privately observed propensity to manipulate short-term stock prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G1, G14, G3, G30, M, M1, M12

• Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Impact on Commodity Prices and International Spillover Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2015-21 Sharon Kozicki, Lena Suchanek, Eric Santor

  Prices of commodities, including metals, energy and agricultural products, rose markedly over the 2009–2010 period. Some observers have attributed a significant part of this increase in commodity prices to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs.

  Content Type(s): Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14, Q, Q0, Q00