G - Financial Economics

• June 12, 2014

  Making Banks Safer: Implementing Basel III

  Financial System Review - June 2014 Éric Chouinard, Graydon Paulin

  Éric Chouinard and Graydon Paulin review the progress to date in implementing Basel III, the new framework of global regulatory standards for the banking sector developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The report highlights the expected net benefits of implementing Basel III, as well as the challenges in ensuring international consistency in measuring the risk-weighted capital of banks. It includes a discussion on how implementing Basel III has affected the banking system in Canada and other important jurisdictions, and demonstrates the need for ongoing assessment of the effects on the financial system and the macroeconomy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G28

• Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation

  Staff Working Paper 2014-23 Toni Ahnert

  I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G28

• Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus

  This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
• May 13, 2014

  The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Lukasz Pomorski, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Eric Wolfe

  This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• High-Frequency Trading Competition

  Staff Working Paper 2014-19 Jonathan Brogaard, Corey Garriott, Anna Pomeranets

  We analyze trading dynamics as successive high-frequency trading (HFT) firms begin to trade stocks in an equity market. Entrants compete with incumbents for volume, and there is crowding out.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1

• Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-18 Giovanni Giusti, Janet Hua Jiang, Yiping Xu

  We study the formation of price bubbles on experimental asset markets where cash earns interest. There are two main conclusions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C90, G, G1, G10

• Uncertain Costs and Vertical Differentiation in an Insurance Duopoly

  Staff Working Paper 2014-14 Radoslav Raykov

  Classical oligopoly models predict that firms differentiate vertically as a way of softening price competition, but some metrics suggest very little quality differentiation in the U.S. auto insurance market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, D8, D81, G, G2, G22, L, L2, L22

• Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2014-13 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12

• Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs

  Staff Working Paper 2014-12 Jasmina Arifovic, Janet Hua Jiang

  A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D80, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20

• Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work

  Staff Working Paper 2014-11 Christiane Baumeister, Pierre Guérin, Lutz Kilian

  The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G14, Q, Q4, Q43