October 31, 2014
Posts
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October 29, 2014
Opening Statement before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce
Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. I am pleased to introduce you to Carolyn Wilkins, who assumed the post of Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada on 2 May of this year. Before we take your questions, let me give you some of the highlights of the economic outlook. I’ll draw mainly […] -
The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles
This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is estimated by Gibbs sampling. -
Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing
This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle. -
October 24, 2014
Notice: Senate Committee Appearance Rescheduled
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday, 29 October 2014 at 16:15 (ET). -
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Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?
The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years. -
On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility
Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns (“sales”) by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out.