Staff working papers

• A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events

  Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2013-12 Jianjian Jin

  This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G17

• Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination

  Staff Working Paper 2013-11 Jon D. Samuels, Rodrigo Sekkel

  A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53

• A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2013-10 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12

• An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu

  This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21

• Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules

  Staff Working Paper 2013-8 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  Using BoC-GEM-Fin, a large-scale DSGE model with real, nominal and financial frictions featuring a banking sector, we explore the macroeconomic implications of various types of countercyclical bank capital regulations. Results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements have a significant stabilizing effect on key macroeconomic variables, but mostly after financial shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2

• A Tractable Monetary Model Under General Preferences

  Staff Working Paper 2013-7 Tsz-Nga Wong

  Consider the monetary model of Lagos and Wright (JPE 2005) but with general preferences and general production. I show that preferences satisfying UXXUHH – (UXH)2 = 0 is a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of monetary equilibrium with degenerate money distribution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40

• To Link or Not To Link? Netting and Exposures Between Central Counterparties

  Staff Working Paper 2013-6 Stacey Anderson, Jean-Philippe Dion, Héctor Pérez Saiz

  This paper provides a framework to compare linked and unlinked CCP configurations in terms of total netting achieved by market participants and the total system default exposures that exist between participants and CCPs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G23

• Market Structure and Cost Pass-Through in Retail

  Staff Working Paper 2013-5 Gee Hee Hong, Nicholas Li

  We examine the extent to which vertical and horizontal market structure can together explain incomplete retail pass-through.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, L, L1, L11, L16

• Financial Development and the Volatility of Income

  Staff Working Paper 2013-4 Tiago Pinheiro, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Marc Teignier

  This paper presents a general equilibrium model with endogenous collateral constraints to study the relationship between financial development and business cycle fluctuations in a cross-section of economies with different sizes of their financial sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E60