Publications

• August 15, 2013

  The Accuracy of Short-Term Forecast Combinations

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Eleonora Granziera, Corinne Luu, Pierre St-Amant

  This article examines whether combining forecasts of real GDP from different models can improve forecast accuracy and considers which model-combination methods provide the best performance. In line with previous literature, the authors find that combining forecasts generally improves forecast accuracy relative to various benchmarks. Unlike several previous studies, however, they find that, rather than assigning equal weights to each model, unequal weighting based on the past forecast performance of models tends to improve accuracy when forecasts across models are substantially different.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
• August 15, 2013

  Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin

  The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
• August 15, 2013

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013

  

  This special issue discusses tools used at Bank of Canada to conduct current analysis - the collection and analysis of a broad spectrum of information to form a view of current economic activity. This analysis is a key input into the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• August 15, 2013

  Big Data Analysis: The Next Frontier

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Nii Ayi Armah

  The formulation of monetary policy at the Bank of Canada relies on the analysis of a broad set of economic information. Greater availability of immediate and detailed information would improve real-time economic decision making. Technological advances have provided an opportunity to exploit “big data” - the vast amount of digital data from business transactions, social media and networked computers. Big data can be a complement to traditional information sources, offering fresh insight for the monitoring of economic activity and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C6, C63, C8, C80
• August 9, 2013

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 9 August 2013

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
• August 2, 2013

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 2 August 2013

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
• July 26, 2013

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 26 July 2013

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
• July 25, 2013

  Banking and Financial Statistics - July 2013

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Banking and Financial Statistics
• July 19, 2013

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 19 July 2013

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
• July 17, 2013

  Monetary Policy Report – July 2013

  

  Following growth of 1.7 per cent in 2012, the Canadian economy is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2013 and 2.7 percent in 2014 and 2015, and to reach full capacity in mid-2015, as anticipated in the April Report.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report