E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Is There a Quality Bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from Micro Data

  Staff Working Paper 2013-24 Oleksiy Kryvtsov

  Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher-priced products, mostly for durable and semi-durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non-shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, M, M1, M11, O, O4, O47

• The Threat of Counterfeiting in Competitive Search Equilibrium

  Staff Working Paper 2013-22 Enchuan Shao

  Recent studies in monetary theory show that if buyers can use lotteries to signal the quality of bank notes, counterfeiting does not occur in a pooling equilibrium. In this paper, I investigate the robustness of this non-existence result by considering an alternative trading mechanism.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E4, E42

• Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2013-20 Nathan Porter, TengTeng Xu

  Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

  Staff Working Paper 2013-19 M. Hashem Pesaran, TengTeng Xu

  This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2013-15 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
• May 16, 2013

  Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evolving Practices, Their Effects and Potential Costs

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 Lena Suchanek, Eric Santor

  Following the recent financial crisis, major central banks have introduced several types of unconventional monetary policy measures, including liquidity and credit facilities, asset purchases and forward guidance. To date, these measures appear to have been successful. They restored market functioning, facilitated the transmission of monetary policy and supported economic activity. They have potential costs, however, including challenges related to the greatly expanded balance sheets of central banks and the eventual exit from these measures, as well as the vulnerabilities that can arise from prolonged monetary accommodation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65

• A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2013-10 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12

• An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu

  This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21

• Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules

  Staff Working Paper 2013-8 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  Using BoC-GEM-Fin, a large-scale DSGE model with real, nominal and financial frictions featuring a banking sector, we explore the macroeconomic implications of various types of countercyclical bank capital regulations. Results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements have a significant stabilizing effect on key macroeconomic variables, but mostly after financial shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2

• A Tractable Monetary Model Under General Preferences

  Staff Working Paper 2013-7 Tsz-Nga Wong

  Consider the monetary model of Lagos and Wright (JPE 2005) but with general preferences and general production. I show that preferences satisfying UXXUHH – (UXH)2 = 0 is a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of monetary equilibrium with degenerate money distribution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40