Staff research, Publications
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The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements
The Canadian Debt Strategy Model helps debt managers determine their optimal financing strategy. The model’s code and documentation are available to the public. -
The Behaviour of Consumer Prices Across Provinces
Measures of core inflation enable a central bank to distinguish price movements that are transitory and generated by non-monetary events from those that are more permanent and related to prior monetary policy decisions. -
Financial Factors and Labour Market Fluctuations
What are the effects of financial market imperfections on unemployment and vacancies? Since standard DSGE models do not typically model unemployment, they abstract from this issue. -
April 13, 2011
Monetary Policy Report – April 2011
This is a report of the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada: Mark Carney, Tiff Macklem, John Murray, Timothy Lane, Jean Boivin and Agathe Côté. It presents the Bank’s outlook based on data received up to 8 April 2011. -
Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). -
April 4, 2011
Senior Loan Officer Survey - First-Quarter 2011
The survey results point to an overall net easing in business-lending conditions. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the first quarter. Note that the balance of opinion indicates only the direction of the change in lending conditions; it does not provide information on the magnitude of the change. -
April 4, 2011
Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2011
Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook, although some forward-looking indicators have eased from the levels recorded in recent surveys, and the strength in commodity prices has raised expectations for costs and inflation.
Erratum: Please note that the legend for Chart 9 (French version only) should read as follows: au-dessus de 3 % , rather than au-dessous de 3 %
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Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy
We develop a closed economy model to study the interactions among sovereign risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy. The stochastic fiscal limits, which measure the ability and willingness of the government to service its debt, arise endogenously from a dynamic Laffer curve. -
Inventories, Markups and Real Rigidities in Sticky Price Models of the Canadian Economy
Recent New Keynesian models of macroeconomy view nominal cost rigidities, rather than nominal price rigidities, as the key feature that accounts for the observed persistence in output and inflation. Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2010a,b) reassess these conclusions by combining a theory based on nominal rigidities and storable goods with direct evidence on inventories for the U.S.