Staff working papers

• Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl

  This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28

• Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

  Staff Working Paper 2011-16 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43