April 13, 2011
Staff research, Publications
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Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). -
April 4, 2011
Senior Loan Officer Survey - First-Quarter 2011
The survey results point to an overall net easing in business-lending conditions. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the first quarter. Note that the balance of opinion indicates only the direction of the change in lending conditions; it does not provide information on the magnitude of the change. -
April 4, 2011
Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2011
Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook, although some forward-looking indicators have eased from the levels recorded in recent surveys, and the strength in commodity prices has raised expectations for costs and inflation.
Erratum: Please note that the legend for Chart 9 (French version only) should read as follows: au-dessus de 3 % , rather than au-dessous de 3 %