Staff working papers

• On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment

  Staff Working Paper 2010-10 Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier

  The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Alternative Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities

  Staff Working Paper 2010-9 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Maral Kichian

  Inflation-targeting central banks around the world often state their inflation objectives with regard to the consumer price index (CPI). Yet the literature on optimal monetary policy based on models with nominal rigidities and more than one sector suggests that CPI inflation is not always the best choice from a social welfare perspective.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, E52, F, F3, F4

• Price Level Targeting: What Is the Right Price?

  Staff Working Paper 2010-8 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Various papers have suggested that Price-Level targeting is a welfare improving policy relative to Inflation targeting. From a practical standpoint, this raises an important yet unanswered question: What is the optimal price index to target?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Time Variation in Okun's Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison

  Staff Working Paper 2010-7 Kimberly Beaton

  This article investigates the stability of Okun's law for Canada and the United States using a time varying parameter approach. Time variation is modeled as driftless random walks and is estimated using the median unbiased estimator approach developed by Stock and Watson (1998).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J0, J00

• Assembling a Real-Financial Micro-Dataset for Canadian Households

  Staff Working Paper 2010-6 Umar Faruqui

  The lack of consolidated Canadian micro data on household balance sheets and expenditures has been an important impediment to empirical research into real-financial linkages in the Canadian household sector. Our paper attempts to fill this data gap by merging household balance sheet data from the Canadian Financial Monitor survey with household expenditure data from the Survey of Household Spending.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, D, D1, D10

• What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2010-5 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Donald Coletti, René Lalonde, Philipp Maier

  We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31

• Macroprudential Regulation and Systemic Capital Requirements

  Staff Working Paper 2010-4 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Moez Souissi

  In the aftermath of the financial crisis, there is interest in reforming bank regulation such that capital requirements are more closely linked to a bank's contribution to the overall risk of the financial system. In our paper we compare alternative mechanisms for allocating the overall risk of a banking system to its member banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• Corporate Risk Taking and Ownership Structure

  Staff Working Paper 2010-3 Teodora Paligorova

  This paper investigates the determinants of corporate risk taking. Shareholders with substantial equity ownership in a single company may advocate conservative investment policies due to greater exposure to firm risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G34

• Labour Reallocation, Relative Prices and Productivity

  Staff Working Paper 2010-2 Shutao Cao, Danny Leung

  This paper documents the rate at which labour flows between industries and between firms within industries using the most recent data available. It examines the determinants of these flows and their relationship with the productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, E, E3, E32, J, J6

• Search Frictions and Asset Price Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2010-1 B. Ravikumar, Enchuan Shao

  We examine the quantitative effect of search frictions in product markets on asset price volatility. We combine several features from Shi (1997) and Lagos and Wright (2002) in a model without money. Households prefer special goods and general goods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12