November 19, 2010
Bank of Canada Review Article
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November 18, 2010
Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity
The recent global crisis was characterized by a remarkable intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy. -
November 18, 2010
Trends in Issuance: Underlying Factors and Implications
Trends in debt issuance have changed significantly over the past decade, both prior to the financial crisis and subsequently. -
August 19, 2010
Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
The recent financial crisis and global economic slowdown have renewed interest in monetary policy options when the policy interest rate is at or near zero. -
August 19, 2010
Price-Level Targeting and Relative-Price Shocks
Stephen Murchison reviews the findings of recent Bank of Canada research on the relative merits of inflation targeting and price-level targeting (PLT) for a small open economy, such as Canada's, that is susceptible to large and persistent terms-of-trade shocks. -
August 19, 2010
Should Monetary Policy Be Used to Counteract Financial Imbalances?
The authors examine whether monetary policy should and could do more to lean against financial imbalances (such as those associated with asset-price bubbles or unsustainable credit expansion) as they are building up, or whether its role should be limited to cleaning up the economic consequences as the imbalances unwind. -
August 19, 2010
Conference Summary: New Frontiers in Monetary Policy Design
Although the current inflation-targeting regime has served Canadians well, sound public policy demands the continuous exploration of possible improvements in the monetary policy framework. -
June 9, 2010
Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?
Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy. -
March 9, 2010
Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience
This article explores the role of inflation expectations in the conduct of monetary policy. It reviews the various measures of inflation expectations used by central banks, including surveys and market-based indicators, and considers their advantages and disadvantages. It examines the critical role of inflation expectations in the framework that central banks use to understand, forecast, and control inflation. It also looks at their role as an indicator of central bank credibility. The behaviour of inflation expectations over the past two years is analyzed and policy conclusions are offered. -
March 9, 2010
Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment
This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation.