Publications

• June 11, 2009

  The Changing Pace of Labour Reallocation in Canada: Causes and Consequences

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 Danny Leung, Shutao Cao

  The number of job gains and losses across firms in Canada each year is roughly one-fifth the total number of jobs and generally occurs within sectors (industries) rather than across sectors. Since labour reallocation within sectors has been strongly related to productivity growth in Canada, defining the key drivers of this type of reallocation is important, given the higher rates of reallocation and productivity growth in the Untied States than in Canada. This article finds that the appreciation of the Canadian dollar and rising commodity prices led to above-average reallocation of labour across sectors over the 2005-08 period, but that the impact on productivity has been minor. Labour reallocation across firms, however, generates substantial labour productivity gains in manufacturing and the business sector as a whole.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity
• June 11, 2009

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009

  

  Examining the incentives for banks to hold various assets on their balance sheets for use as collateral when the opportunity cost of doing so can be high; an outline of the complexity inherent in any modern risk-management system and review of possible strategies to improve the performance of risk management; causes and consequences of the changing pace of labour reallocation in Canada; description of the structure and functioning of BoC-GEM— an adaptation of the Global Economy Model— with examples of its recent application.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• June 11, 2009

  BoC-GEM: Modelling the World Economy

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 René Lalonde, Dirk Muir

  BoC-GEM, an adaptation of the Global Economy Model, initially developed at the International Monetary Fund and the New York Federal Reserve, is a very useful tool to tackle a broad range of issues pertinent to the current economic context, such as the recent movements in commodity prices and the adjustment of global imbalances. This article describes the structure and functioning of BoC-GEM and details some examples of recent application in the areas of monetary policy and issues in the real economy and questions of financial stability and describes ongoing research into introducing a financial sector into the model.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, International topics
• April 25, 2009

  Senior Loan Officer Survey - First-Quarter 2009

  Survey respondents reported continued tightening in lending conditions. Respondents attributed the ongoing tightening to concerns about the economic outlook and to industry-specific factors.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
• April 22, 2009

  Monetary Policy Report – April 2009

  

  In an environment of continued high uncertainty, the global recession has intensified and become more synchronous since the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report Update, with weaker-than-expected activity in all major economies.

  Errata: The source for Chart 1 (on page 3) is Global Insight, not the Bank of Canada. As well, in chart 15 (on page18), the base year for the exchange rate index CERI excluding the U.S. dollar should read 1992=100, not 1997=100.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• April 13, 2009

  Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2009

  Business sentiment remains negative. While some indicators have inched up from historical lows, the results of the spring survey continue to suggest a weak outlook for the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• April 9, 2009

  Next Steps for Canadian Monetary Policy

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Donald Coletti

  In 2006, the Bank initiated a research program exploring two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target. This article discusses progress to date, places the Bank's findings in the context of a broader literature, and identifies avenues for future research.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework
• April 9, 2009

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009

  

  Examination of progress in the Bank’s exploration of two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target; a review of arguments for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting; assessing the merits of price-level targeting vis-à-vis inflation targeting from a debt-revaluation perspective; quantifying redistribution of wealth in Canada in the face of unexpected inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• April 8, 2009

  Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Steve Ambler

  This article reviews arguments in the literature for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting. Benefits of price-level targeting include the effect on forward-looking inflation expectations; the ability to substitute for commitment by a central bank to its future policies; lessening forecast errors; better economic performance in response to real shocks because of lower wage indexation; and a reduction in the problem of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework
• April 7, 2009

  Price-Level Uncertainty, Price-Level Targeting, and Nominal Debt Contracts

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Allan Crawford, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima

  Many central banks around the world have embraced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. Interest is growing, however, in price-level targeting as an alternative. The choice of frameworks has important consequences for financial contracts, most of which are not fully indexed to the price level. Changes in the price level therefore lead to changes in the real value of contracts.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework