Staff discussion papers

• Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-5 Calista Cheung

  Commodity prices have increased dramatically and persistently over the past several years, followed by a sharp reversal in recent months. These large and persistent movements in commodity prices raise questions about their implications for global inflation. The process of globalization has motivated much debate over whether global factors have become more important in driving the […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, E52, E58

• Relative Prices, Trading Gains, and Real GDI: The Case of Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-4 Yi Zheng

  Treating imports as intermediate inputs to domestic production, the author adopts the translog function approach to model real gross domestic income (GDI) in Canada over the 1961–2006 period. She explores the role of price ratios, such as terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate, in explaining changes in real GDI, trade openness, trade […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, D, D3, D33, F, F1, F10, O, O4, O47

• Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir

  The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E5, E50, E58, E6, E60

• Labour Shares and the Role of Capital and Labour Market Imperfections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-2 Lena Suchanek

  In continental Europe, labour shares in national income have exhibited considerable variation since 1970. Empirical and theoretical research suggests that the evolution of labour markets and labour market imperfections can, in part, explain this phenomenon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, E, E2, E25, J, J6, J64

• Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-1 Michael Bordo, Lawrence L. Schembri, Tamara Gomes

  Canada played an important role in the postwar establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet it was also the first major member to challenge the orthodoxy of the BrettonWoods par value system by abandoning it in 1950 in favour of a floating, market-determined exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F41, F5, F55, N, N7, N72