October 26, 2009
Staff research, Publications
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October 25, 2009
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Third-Quarter 2009
By a narrow margin, the survey results point to continued tightening in credit conditions during the third quarter, following a period of substantial credit tightening for business borrowers (Chart 1). -
Cross-border Mergers and Hollowing-out
The purpose of our paper is to examine the profitability and social desirability of both domestic and foreign mergers in a location-quantity competition model, where we allow for the possibility of hollowing-out of the target firm. We refer to hollowing-out as the situation where the target firm is shut down following a merger with a domestic or foreign acquirer. -
Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?
Several authors have presented reduced-form evidence suggesting that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the consumer price index has declined in Canada since the early 1980s and is currently close to zero. -
Bond Liquidity Premia
Recent asset pricing models of limits to arbitrage emphasize the role of funding conditions faced by financial intermediaries. In the US, the repo market is the key funding market. Then, the premium of on-the-run U.S. Treasury bonds should share a common component with risk premia in other markets. -
Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
There appears to be a disconnect between the importance of the zero bound on nominal interest rates in the real-world and predictions from quantitative DSGE models. Recent economic events have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound for monetary policy whereas quantitative models suggest that the zero bound does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy. -
Consumption, Housing Collateral, and the Canadian Business Cycle
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the Canadian business cycle. -
October 9, 2009
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2009
Responses to the autumn survey suggest that the Canadian economy is recovering, as all indicators of business activity have increased since the summer survey. However, because firms continue to expect activity to pick up only gradually, they remain cautious regarding investment.