Staff working papers

• The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models

  Staff Working Paper 2007-38 Frédérick Demers, Ryan Macdonald

  This paper examines the ability of linear and nonlinear models to replicate features of real Canadian GDP. We evaluate the models using various business-cycle metrics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

• A vision for IMF Surveillance

  Staff Working Paper 2007-37 Robert Lavigne, Philipp Maier, Eric Santor

  The ongoing review of the IMF, initiated in 2005 by Managing Director De Rato, presents an excellent opportunity to re-examine the role, functions and governance of the Fund.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33

• Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence

  Staff Working Paper 2007-36 Carlos De Resende

  This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E50, E6, E63

• Gold Prices and Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2007-35 Greg Tkacz

  Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E44

• Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment

  Staff Working Paper 2007-34 Selim Elekdag, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, Paolo Pesenti

  We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, F, F3, F32, F4, F47

• Domestic versus External Borrowing and Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2007-33 Garima Vasishtha

  Domestic public debt issued by emerging markets has risen significantly relative to international debt in recent years. Some recent empirical evidence also suggests that sovereigns have defaulted differentially on debt held by domestic and external creditors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, H, H2, H21, H6, H63

• Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2007-32 Michel Juillard, Florian Pelgrin

  Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, E, E5, E6

• Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms

  Staff Working Paper 2007-31 Daniel de Munnik, Kuan Xu

  How do firms adjust prices in the marketplace? Do they tend to adjust prices infrequently in response to changes in market conditions? If so, why? These remain key questions in macroeconomics, particularly for central banks that work to keep inflation low and stable.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, E, E3, E30, L, L1, L11

• Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2007-30 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley

  Under bond-rate transmission of monetary policy, the authors show that a generalized Taylor Principle applies, in which the average anticipated path of policy responses to inflation is subject to a lower bound of unity. This result helps explain how bond rates may exhibit stable responses to inflation, even in periods of passive policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, N, N1

• Exchange Rate Regimes, Globalisation, and the Cost of Capital in Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2007-29 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Since there is evidence that a fixed exchange rate regime reduces the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors, the tentative conclusion is that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F33, G, G1, G15