Staff research, Publications
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Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets
In this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process. -
Time-Consistent Control in Non-Linear Models
We show how to use optimal control theory to derive optimal time-consistent Markov-perfect government policies in nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models, extending the result of Cohen and Michel (1988) for models with quadratic objective functions and linear dynamics. We replace private agents' costates by flexible functions of current states in the government's maximization problem. -
Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada
Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. -
How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables
For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. -
January 30, 2007
Annual Report 2006
The year 2006 marked a turning point for the Bank of Canada. We successfully completed our medium-term plan, The Way Forward, and began writing a fresh chapter in the Bank’s history based on a new three-year plan. In this annual report, we do more than give an accounting of past achievements. We also provide forward-looking information on the plans and priorities in our new medium-term plan. And as we advance, we are always mindful of the Bank’s original mandate, set out more than 70 years ago, to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.”
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January 23, 2007
Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007
Cover page
French Provincial Issues in Canada
The coins pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. -
January 16, 2007
Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2007
The global economy has continued to expand robustly. However, U.S. economic growth slowed in 2006, with the weakness concentrated in the automotive and housing sectors. -
January 8, 2007
Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2006-07
On balance, businesses expect their sales over the next 12 months to increase at a rate slightly above that posted during the preceding 12 months. Hiring and investment intentions have not changed significantly since the last survey.
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