Staff research

• Corporate Balance Sheets in Developed Economies: Implications for Investment

  Staff Working Paper 2007-24 Denise Côté, Christopher Graham

  In this paper, the authors examine the aggregate national balance-sheets of non-financial corporations in Australia and the G7 countries with a view to assessing both their financial structure and their financial position. More importantly, the authors investigate whether the financial position of non-financial corporations (i.e., debt-to-equity ratio) is material to the economy's investment prospects and whether the importance of this channel differs depending on the structure of corporate financing i.e., bank-based or market-oriented financing structures.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Order Aggressiveness and Quantity: How Are They Determined in a Limit Order Market?

  Staff Working Paper 2007-23 Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp

  Dealers trading in a limit order market must choose both the order aggressiveness and the quantity for their orders. We empirically investigate how dealers jointly make these decisions in the foreign exchange market using a unique simultaneous equations model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14

• IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect

  Staff Working Paper 2007-22 Carlos De Resende

  The author studies the welfare implications of adjustment programs supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He uses a model where an endogenous borrowing constraint, set up by international lenders who will never lend more than a debt ceiling, forces the borrowing economy to always choose repayment over default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F33, F34, F4, F41

• A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate

  Staff Working Paper 2007-21 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Jun Yang

  We study the joint dynamics of macroeconomic variables, bond yields, and the exchange rate in an empirical two-country New-Keynesian model complemented with a no-arbitrage term structure model. With Canadian and US data, we are able to study the impact of macroeconomic shocks from both countries on their yield curves and the exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E43, F, F4, F41, G, G1, G12, G15

• Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2007-20 Gregory Bauer, Keith Vorkink

  We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, G, G1, G14

• The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for the Optimal Monetary Policy in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2007-1 Claude Lavoie, Hope Pioro

  The authors assess the performance of the Canadian economy under a variety of interest rate rules when the zero bound on nominal interest rates can bind. Their assessment is based on numerical simulations of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model in a stochastic environment. Consistent with the literature, the authors find that the probability and consequences […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, E5, E52

• Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2007-19 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley

  This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an effective inflation target of roughly 7 percent in the 1970s.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, N, N1

• Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting

  Staff Working Paper 2007-18 Marc-André Gosselin

  The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• Firms Dynamics, Bankruptcy Laws and Total Factor Productivity

  Staff Working Paper 2007-17 Hajime Tomura

  This paper analyzes endogenous fluctuations in total factor productivity (TFP) in a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, and illustrates the interaction of credit market frictions, asset prices, the entry and exit of firms, and fluctuations in TFP in response to firm-level productivity and aggregate credit-market shocks. I also analyze the effect of bankruptcy and foreclosure laws on fluctuations in TFP through their effect on credit market frictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E4, E44, G, G3, G33

• World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2007-16 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis

  Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, F, F3