Staff research, Publications
-
-
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. -
Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP
The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter. -
July 13, 2006
Monetary Policy Report Update – July 2006
Overall, the outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada is largely unchanged from that set out in the April Monetary Policy Report. -
Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices
The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. -
Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?
The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship. -
Convergence in a Stochastic Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model
The authors characterize the equilibrium for a small economy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model with uncertainty. -
June 30, 2006
Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2006
The results of this Business Outlook Survey are broadly in line with those of the previous one. -
June 21, 2006
Credibility with Flexibility: The Evolution of Inflation-Targeting Regimes, 1990–2006
Beginning with a review of the adoption of inflation targeting in a broad group of countries, Paulin focuses on changes in the design of inflation-targeting frameworks in light of fifteen years of accumulated experience. Included in the discussion are the use of numerical targets and ranges, the policy horizon, supporting institutional policy structures, and communication, including the publication of forecasts. A recurring theme is how much flexibility an inflation-targeting regime allows. The article concludes that the changes made to the frameworks have been relatively modest since their adoption, but in concert with the improved credibility that has resulted from central banks meeting their inflation-control targets, they have allowed an increasingly nuanced response to economic shocks. -
June 21, 2006
Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006
Cover page
Irish Gun Money
The coins pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada.
Photography by Gord Carter