C5 - Econometric Modeling

• Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-42 Céline Gauthier, Fuchun Li

  The authors estimate a small monthly macroeconometric model (BEAM, for bonds, equity, and money) of the Canadian economy built around three cointegrating relationships linking financial and real variables over the 1975–2002 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4

• Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-39 Jean-Marie Dufour, David Tessier

  The authors examine simultaneously the causal links connecting monetary policy variables, real activity, and stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C32, C5, C51, C53, E, E5, E52

• Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2006-31 Antonio Diez de los Rios, René Garcia

  Several studies have put forward the non-linear structure and option-like features of returns associated with hedge fund strategies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1

• Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2006-26 Yi Zheng, James Rossiter

  The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53

• Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4

• Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2006-22 Anna Piretti, Charles St-Arnaud

  The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E3, E37

• Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion

  Staff Working Paper 2006-14 Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, Sebastien McMahon

  Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37

• The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2006-11 René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent

  In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E5, E52

• Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2006-2 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  The authors address empirically the implications of structural breaks in the variance-covariance matrix of inflation and import prices for changes in pass-through.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F40