C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP
The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter. -
The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity.