F3 - International Finance

• The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar

  Staff Working Paper 2006-29 Ramzi Issa, Robert Lafrance, John Murray

  The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

• Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15