Staff research, Publications
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Quantity, Quality, and Relevance: Central Bank Research, 1990–2003
The authors document the research output of 34 central banks from 1990 to 2003, and use proxies of research inputs to measure the research productivity of central banks over this period. -
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. -
The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach
The authors develop and estimate an equilibrium-based model of the Canadian term structure of interest rates. -
Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process
A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function. -
The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting
The author provides a non-technical explanation of the role played by the exchange rate in Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy. -
Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?
Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. -
Degree of Internationalization and Performance: An Analysis of Canadian Banks
The international business literature measures the link between the degree of internationalization (DOI) of a firm's activities and its performance. -
Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. -
October 25, 2005
Exports, Imports, and the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar
An objective assessment of the effects of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 on exports and imports requires a detailed review of the numerous other factors which may have been at play. Dion, Laurence, and Zheng discuss the influences that have affected Canada's international trade over the past two years, including exchange rate movements, global and sector-specific shocks, constraints on the domestic supply of a few products, and competition from emerging economies, most notably, China. The analysis is complemented with econometric models developed at the Bank which provide statistically valid estimates of the contribution of the Canadian-dollar appreciation to the recent developments in exports and imports.