Business fluctuations and cycles

• MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

  Technical Report No. 96 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money

  Staff Working Paper 2005-30 Ali Dib, Louis Phaneuf

  The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-29 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei

  Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years in industrialized countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4

• Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-15 Hafedh Bouakez, Takashi Kano

  In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, J, J2, J22

• Self-Enforcing Labour Contracts and the Dynamics Puzzle

  Staff Working Paper 2005-1 Christian Calmès

  To properly account for the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables, researchers incorporate various internal-propagation mechanisms in their models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E49, J, J3, J30, J31, J4, J41