Frédérick Demers - Latest

• Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-44 Frédérick Demers, Annie De Champlain

  The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, E37

• Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2005-41 Frédérick Demers

  The author proposes and evaluates econometric models that try to explain and forecast real quarterly housing expenditures in Canada. Structural and leading-indicator models of the Canadian housing sector are described.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, R, R2, R21

• Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information

  Staff Working Paper 2005-31 Frédérick Demers, David Dupuis

  The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E1, E17