E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada?

  Staff Working Paper 2003-30 Lise Pichette, Dominique Tremblay

  The authors examine the link between consumption and disaggregate wealth in Canada. They use a vector-error-correction model in which permanent and transitory shocks are identified using the restrictions implied by cointegration proposed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21

• Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2003-27 Ali Dib

  The author develops and estimates a quantitative dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy (SOE) with domestic and import price stickiness and capital-adjustment costs. A monetary policy rule allows the central bank to systematically manage the short-term nominal interest rate in response to deviations of inflation, output, and money growth from their steadystate levels.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F2, F3

• The Construction of Continuity-Adjusted Monetary Aggregate Components

  Staff Working Paper 2003-22 Jeannie Kottaras

  Changes in the financial industry result in new data that are inconsistent with the former presentation, and therefore adjustments are required to "adjust" or smooth out these breaks to establish continuity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51

• Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money

  Staff Working Paper 2003-21 Paul Gilbert, Lise Pichette

  Technological innovations in the financial industry pose major problems for the measurement of monetary aggregates. The authors describe work on a new measure of money that has a more satisfactory means of identifying and removing the effects of financial innovations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary aggregates, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, C8, C82, E, E5, E51

• A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area

  Staff Working Paper 2003-19 Ramdane Djoudad, Céline Gauthier

  The authors estimate and solve a small structural model for the euro area over the 1983–2000 period. Given the assumption of rational expectations, the model implies a set of orthogonality conditions that provide the basis for estimating the model's parameter by generalized method of moments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico

  Staff Working Paper 2003-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Daniel Garcés, Mark Kruger, Miguel Messmacher

  The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37

• Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2003-16 Gabriel Srour

  The author explores the role that Taylor-type rules can play in monetary policy, given the degree of uncertainty in the economy. The optimal rule is derived from a simple infinite-horizon model of the monetary transmission mechanism, with only additive uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• An Index of Financial Stress for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2003-14 Mark Illing, Ying Liu

  The authors develop an index of financial stress for the Canadian financial system. Stress is defined as the force exerted on economic agents by uncertainty and changing expectations of loss in financial markets and institutions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10

• Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains

  Staff Working Paper 2003-13 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21, E3, E32

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Military Buildups in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework

  Staff Working Paper 2003-12 Alain Paquet, Louis Phaneuf, Nooman Rebei

  The authors study the macroeconomic consequences of large military buildups using a New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) approach that combines nominal rigidities within imperfectly competitive goods and labour markets. They show that the predictions of the NNS framework generally are consistent with the sign, timing, and magnitude of how hours worked, after-tax real wages, and output actually respond to an upsurge in military purchases.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H2