Posts

• Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

  Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin

  This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, F, F3, F31, F4, F47

• Managing Operational Risk in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2003-2 Kim McPhail

  Awareness of operational risk has increased greatly in recent years, both at individual financial institutions and for payment, clearing, and settlement systems (PCSS). PCSS consist of networks of interconnected elements (i.e., central operators, participants, and settlement agents); operational problems at any one of the key elements have the potential to disrupt the system as a whole and negatively affect financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2003-1 Eric Santor

  Recent events, such as the East Asian, Mexican, Scandinavian, and Argentinian crises, have sparked considerable interest in exploring how shocks experienced by one country can spread vis-à-vis real and nominal links to other countries' banking systems. Given the large costs associated with banking-system failures, both economists and policy-makers are interested in predicting the onset of banking crises and assessing the likelihood of contagion during crisis events.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G2, G20

• Money in the Bank (of Canada)

  Technical Report No. 93 David Longworth

  With the demise of monetary targeting over the past 20 years in many major countries, the question has arisen as to whether central banks should look at money at all when formulating and conducting monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E51, E52
• January 30, 2003

  Annual Report 2002

  

  In the year just ended, the global economy faced a number of exceptional challenges, reflecting a wide range of economic, financial, and geopolitical risks and uncertainties. These included the fallout from the September 2001 terrorist attacks, corporate accounting scandals, stock market volatility, and developments in the Middle East. Despite this global backdrop, the Canadian economy outperformed virtually all other industrial economies, growing by about 3 1/4 per cent and creating 560,000 jobs, while inflation expectations remained well anchored to the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent inflation-control target.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
• January 29, 2003

  Monetary Policy Protects Canada from Persistent Inflation and Deflation, Governor Says

  Media Relations Toronto, Ontario

  In a speech to the Speakers Forum, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said today that Canada's macroeconomic policy framework is protecting the economy from both persistently high inflation and the threat of deflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• January 29, 2003

  Monetary Policy: Meeting the Challenges of an Uncertain World

  Remarks David Dodge Speakers Forum Toronto, Ontario

  I'll discuss what's happening to prices in the economy and how Canada's macroeconomic policy framework protects it from the risks of persistent inflation or deflation. Finally, I will update our outlook for the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
• January 23, 2003

  Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Report Update

  Media Relations

  The Bank of Canada today released its Update to the October Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• January 23, 2003

  Release of Monetary Policy Report Update

  Opening statement David Dodge

  Core inflation has been higher than anticipated in recent months. This reflects not only a stronger-than-expected increase in premiums for auto and home insurance, but also some broadening of price pressures resulting from strong demand in the economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• January 23, 2003

  Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2003

  At the time of the October Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected that core inflation would rise in the fourth quarter of 2002, reflecting a combination of one-off factors - including the rise in insurance premiums - and the “echo effect” from developments towards the end of 2001.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report