Frédérick Demers - Latest

• The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting

  Staff Working Paper 2003-32 Frédérick Demers

  Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

• Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2003-24 René Lalonde, Zhenhua Zhu, Frédérick Demers

  The authors develop simple econometric models to analyze and forecast two components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index: the Bank of Canada non-energy (BCNE) commodity prices and the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price. They present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5