Business fluctuations and cycles

• August 17, 2001

  The Changing Effects of Energy-Price Shocks on Economic Activity and Inflation

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2001 Gerald Stuber

  In this article the author examines the effects that major changes in energy prices in recent years have had on inflation and on the pace of economic expansion. These are then compared with the effects of the oil-price shocks that occurred in the 1970s and early 1980s. Changes in the intensity of energy use are examined, as well as developments in Canada's merchandise trade surplus in energy commodities and products. The author also considers the effects that a monetary policy anchored to low and stable inflation could have on price-setting behaviour and thus on the pass-through of higher energy costs to core inflation in Canada and in other industrial countries.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles

• Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2001-9 Alexandre Debs

  This study tests for a structural break in the volatility of real GDP growth in Canada following the methodology of McConnell and Quiros (1998). A break is found in the first quarter of 1991.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32

• On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve

  Staff Working Paper 2001-4 Maral Kichian

  This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37