Bank of Canada Review Article

• August 12, 1999

  Recent Developments in Global Commodity Prices: Implications for Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1999 Farid Novin, Gerald Stuber

  The authors examine the recent evolution of commodity prices. They discuss the factors behind the price declines that occurred between the summer of 1997 and the end of 1998, including the key supply factors and the drop in Asian demand caused by that region's concurrent financial and economic crisis. They then review the effects of the reduction in world commodity prices on economic activity in Canada. They point out that the depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, together with the continued strength of the U.S. economy, has partly offset the negative effects on Canadian aggregate demand.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets
• August 11, 1999

  Preparations by the Canadian Financial Sector for the Year 2000

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1999 Clyde Goodlet

  This article outlines the extensive work undertaken by the various participants in Canada's financial sector to ensure "business as usual" heading into January 2000 and beyond. The article looks at preparations in the Bank of Canada's own mission-critical systems and at those of the country's major clearing and settlement systems for which the Bank has oversight responsibility. It also looks at the steps taken by the financial institutions themselves. Contingency planning that takes account of specific year-2000 concerns is also reviewed.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions
• May 15, 1999

  Recent developments in the monetary aggregates and their implications

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1999 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Loretta Nott

  In its conduct of monetary policy, the Bank of Canada carefully monitors the pace of monetary expansion for indications about the outlook for inflation and economic activity. In recent years, a number of factors have distorted the growth of the traditional broad and narrow aggregates. In this article, the authors discuss the uncertainty surrounding the classification of deposit instruments that has resulted from the elimination of reserve requirements and from other financial innovations. They introduce two new measures of transactions balances, M1+ and M1++ (described more fully in a technical note in this issue of the Review), that internalize some of the substitutions that have occurred. They attribute the deceleration in M1 growth in 1998 partly to the declining influence of special factors, partly to a lagged response to interest rate increases in 1997 and early 1998, and partly to some temporary tightening in credit conditions in the autumn of 1998. The broad monetary aggregate M2++, which includes all personal savings deposits, life insurance annuities, and mutual funds, grew at a steady pace in 1998, presaging growth of about 4 to 5 per cent in total dollar spending and inflation inside the target range.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary aggregates
• May 14, 1999

  Open outcry and electronic trading in futures exchanges

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1999 Raymond Tsang

  Despite the efficiency gains that accompany automation, most large futures exchanges have been reluctant to move away from the traditional trading floor, citing early evidence that open outcry exchanges were more liquid than electronic exchanges. More recent studies, however, suggest that electronic trading is superior to open outcry in many respects, including liquidity. In this article, the author compares the two trading systems. Although many exchanges are shifting towards electronic trading, there are still several obstacles to this transition. But as technology rapidly reduces the cost of automation and increases the demand for global 24-hour trading, a worldwide transition to electronic order-matching will likely be the next important milestone for futures exchanges. Less-automated exchanges (including the Canadian futures exchanges) will undoubtedly continue to study and promote automation in order to keep pace with technological innovations.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets