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  • December 16, 1999

    Economic and Financial Developments to 16 February 2000: An Update to the Monetary Policy Report

    Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1999–2000 Tim Noël, Sheryl Kennedy, Gordon Thiessen, Malcolm Knight, Pierre Duguay, Paul Jenkins, Charles Freedman
    Highlights * The pace of economic activity in the United States remains strong, exceeding earlier expectations. * With the stronger momentum of external demand, the Bank now expects Canada's real GDP growth in 2000 to be in the upper half of the 2.75 to 3.75 per cent range projected in the last Monetary Policy Report. * Core inflation was below expectations in November, partly because of price discounting on certain semi-durables. * The Bank expects core inflation to increase to 2 per cent in the first quarter of 2000. * Because of higher energy prices, the rate of increase in total CPI is expected to rise to close to 3 per cent early in the year. * Developments during the last three months underscore the risks to Canada's economic outlook highlighted in the last Report : stronger momentum of demand for Canadian output from both domestic and external sources and potential inflationary pressures in the United States. Information received since 14 January, when the update to our November Monetary Policy Report was completed, continues to point to a strengthening outlook for the world economy and for Canada. In the United States, real GDP again exceeded expectations—rising at an annual rate of 5.8 per cent in the fourth quarter. While some price and cost pressures are evident in the United States, strong productivity growth has thus far held unit labour costs down. Because of the rapid expansion of demand above the growth of potential capacity, however, and the associated inflation risks, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent on 2 February. Although trend inflation remains low in the industrial countries, a number of other major central banks have also raised their policy rates in the last couple of weeks because of concern about future inflation pressures, given strengthening demand. The buoyancy of external demand, particularly that coming from the United States, continues to show in our latest merchandise trade numbers. Export growth in November remained strong, with the overall trade balance in large surplus. World prices for our key primary commodities also continue to firm in response to rising global demand. On the domestic side, the latest information on demand and production points to continued robustness. Real GDP (at factor cost) rose 0.6 per cent (4.6 per cent year-over-year) in November, and employment continued to grow strongly through year-end and into January. Other indicators, including the latest data on the monetary aggregates, support this strong economic picture. The Bank now expects real GDP growth in 2000 to be near the top of the 2.75 to 3.75 per cent range projected in November. Our core measure of inflation was 1.6 per cent (year-over-year) in December, slightly below expectations, partly because of temporary discounts on certain items. Core inflation is still expected to move up to the midpoint of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target range in the first quarter. Over the same period, the total CPI will likely rise to close to 3 per cent because of the recent sharp step-up in energy prices but is still expected to come down towards the core rate during the course of 2000 as energy prices moderate. The Bank of Canada raised its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent on 3 February. The factors behind this decision included the strong momentum of demand in Canada from both external and domestic sources, the importance of approaching full capacity in a prudent way, and the risk of a spillover of potential inflation pressures from the United States.
    Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
  • November 2, 1999

    The Challenges for Canadian Monetary Policy in the Year 2000

    Remarks Gordon Thiessen the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island
    Monetary policy actions take a relatively long time to affect the economy and inflation—anywhere between 12 to 24 months. Because of this, central banks must always look ahead and must put in place today the monetary conditions that are needed to help keep the economy on a sustainable path down the road. By 'sustainable' I mean a situation where economic growth and job creation are not at risk from rising inflation.
    Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
  • May 26, 1999

    Opening Statement before the Standing Committee on Finance of the House of Commons

    Opening statement Gordon Thiessen Standing Committee on Finance of the House of Commons
    It is always a pleasure to appear before your Committee following the publication of our Monetary Policy Report. We released our ninth Report last Wednesday. The Bank of Canada began publishing these Reports on a semi-annual basis four years ago, as part of our effort to increase the transparency and accountability of the Bank's conduct of monetary policy.
    Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
  • May 19, 1999

    Release of the Monetary Policy Report

    Opening statement Gordon Thiessen
    This morning we released our ninth Monetary Policy Report. The economic and financial situation is much improved since our previous Report in November. Financial markets have steadied in Southeast Asia, and prospects are good for a gradual recovery there. In Brazil, the authorities have taken major steps to address their difficulties. Overall, global financial markets […]
    Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
  • May 4, 1999

    Global financial turbulence and the Canadian economy

    Remarks Gordon Thiessen La Chambre de commerce de la région sherbrookoise Sherbrooke, Quebec
    The world economy and Canada have had to navigate some difficult straits in the past couple of years. But we have made it through. And considering the tide from the Asian financial crisis that washed around the world, the Canadian economy has coped better this time around than in the past.
    Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
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