Posts

• August 14, 1998

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1998

  

  Cover Page

  Bill of exchange, Commercial Bank of Newfoundland

  This bill of exchange is from the Commercial Bank of Newfoundland (1857–1894), measures approximately 23 cm by 11 cm, and is part of the National Currency Collection at the Bank of Canada.

  Photography by James Zagon.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• August 13, 1998

  Labour force participation in Canada: Trends and shifts

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1998 Irene Ip

  A key determinant of the potential growth of an economy is the rate at which the labour force increases, which depends both on population growth and on changes in the participation rate. Cyclical factors related to the economic environment can play a significant role in affecting the participation rate, as can structural factors and demographic trends. From the mid-1970s to the end of the 1980s, the participation rate rose almost without interruption to a record high of 67.5 per cent. In contrast, between 1990 and 1995, it declined sharply and has been relatively steady at around 65 per cent since 1995. In this article, the author analyzes the participation rate of age and gender groupings in order to better understand the factors leading to these developments and their implications for future movements in the aggregate rate. While cyclical factors contributed to the decline in the participation rate in the 1990s, structural factors (such as an increase in school attendance rates and the increasing use of computer technology) and demographic trends (the aging of the population) have had a substantial impact. The conclusion reached is that, while some recovery is to be expected, the aggregate participation rate is unlikely to return to its 1989 peak over the next decade or so.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Labour markets
• August 12, 1998

  The declining supply of treasury bills and the Canadian money market

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1998 Serge Boisvert, Nancy Harvey

  The supply of treasury bills has fallen considerably since 1995, reflecting a decline in the financing needs of the Canadian government and a change in its debt-management strategy. This has had a major impact on different segments of the money market. Among the various implications of this development, the authors point out the decrease in turnover and, hence, liquidity in the treasury bill market since 1995, as well as high rates of growth in the market for short-term interest rate derivatives and for short-term asset-backed securities.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets

• Le PIB potentiel des États-Unis et ses déterminants : la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et le taux d'activité

  Staff Working Paper 1998-13 René Lalonde

  This study has three main objectives: first, to determine whether the good performance of the U.S. economy observed in recent years is attributable to an upsurge in potential GDP; second, to identify the variables related to aggregate supply, whose trend might explain the evolution in economic potential; finally, to observe whether, despite everything, the American […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers

• Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1998-12 Patrick Perrier

  In this study, the author uses survey data on inflationary expectations to obtain information about the credibility of Canada's monetary policy. By comparing the differences between the forecasts made by survey participants with the targets set by the Bank of Canada for the 1992-1996 period (the period covered by the study), it was possible to […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• Liquidity Effects and Market Frictions

  Staff Working Paper 1998-11 Scott Hendry, Guang-Jia Zhang

  The goal of this paper is to shed light on the nature of the monetary transmission mechanism. Specifically, we attempt to tackle two problems in standard limited-participation models: (1) the interest rate liquidity effect is not as persistent as in the data; and (2) some nominal variables are unrealistically volatile. To address these problems, we […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5

• Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 1998-10 Mark Kruger, Patrick Osakwe, Jennifer Page

  This paper examines the determinants of currency crises in Latin America, Asia and Africa. It asks two basic questions: (a) Are currency crises linked to economic fundamentals? and; (b) Is there any evidence of a contagion effect after controlling for the potential effects of economic fundamentals? Using pooled annual data for 19 developing countries spanning […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3
• June 11, 1998

  The outlook for the Canadian economy and monetary policy

  Remarks Bernard Bonin The Canadian Association of Financial Planners Québec, Québec

  In mid-May we published our semi-annual Report on monetary policy, covering data up to April 24th. That means we now have new data available for the last two months. Furthermore, our report also pointed to a much greater-than-usual degree of uncertainty about the outlook for the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks

• Buying Back Government Bonds: Mechanics and Other Considerations

  Staff Working Paper 1998-9 Toni Gravelle

  With the elimination of the federal deficit, the Bank of Canada, the Department of Finance, and financial market participants are examining ways to manage the reduction in the stock of marketable debt. This paper summarizes three different methods—reverse auction, over-the-counter purchases, and conversions—that could be used to buy back Government of Canada bonds before they […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1

• Easing Restrictions on the Stripping and Reconstitution of Government of Canada Bonds

  Staff Working Paper 1998-8 David Bolder, Serge Boisvert

  The Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada, as its fiscal agent, work closely with financial market participants in the management of the federal government's debt program. From the government's perspective, maintaining a liquid well-functioning market in Government of Canada securities is a key factor in ensuring that debt-service costs are minimized. It is […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management JEL Code(s): G, G1