H - Public Economics

• L'endettement du Canada et ses effets sur les taux d'intérêt réels de long terme

  Staff Working Paper 1996-14 Jean-François Fillion

  This paper examines the effects that Canada's indebtedness has on Canadian real long-term interest rates, using the vector error-correction model (VECM). Our results show that there is a strongly cointegrated relationship between real interest rates in Canada, U.S. real interest rates, and Canadian public and external debt ratios.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F30, H, H6, H60

• Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 1996-6 Stella Cheung

  The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): H, H6, H63