Staff research

• Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy

  Staff Working Paper 1995-2 Alain DeSerres, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant

  In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Potential output

• The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 2. A Robust Method for Simulating Forward-Looking Models

  Technical Report No. 73 John Armstrong, Richard Black, Douglas Laxton, David Rose

  In this report, we describe methods for solving economic models when expectations are presumed to have at least some element of consistency with the predictions of the model itself. We present analytical results that establish the convergence properties of alternative solution procedures for linear models with unique solutions. Only one method is guaranteed to converge, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53

• Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 1995-1 Christopher Ragan

  In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates