The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.

Inflation in Canada has been higher than anticipated and is projected to remain around 3% through much of 2027. It then returns close to 2% by the middle of 2028. The outlook for growth has improved, but uncertainty remains elevated.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Monetary Policy Report and the key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse indicate that firms’ sentiment improved in the third quarter. Most survey responses were collected before Canada-US trade talks broke down and new counter-tariffs were announced. Firms reported better outlooks for domestic and export sales, and investment intentions remained robust. Expectations for input and selling price growth and for inflation eased but remained elevated. Responses collected after trade talks broke down suggest that renewed trade tensions are dampening firms’ sentiment and export and investment outlooks. The new tariffs and counter-tariffs are putting upward pressure on costs, prices and inflation expectations.