May 8, 2023
Access reference material to accompany the Business Outlook Survey (BOS).
A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-15
David Amirault,
Naveen Rai,
Laurent Martin
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E32
April 4, 2022
Firms participating in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) are asked several questions about labour markets. One such question is whether they expect wage growth to increase or decrease over the next 12 months. The responses to this question, combined with related confidential comments, give a picture of the state of wage pressures in the economy. This, along with wage data and several labour market indicators, inform the Bank about labour market conditions.
Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on firms’ average expected wage increase
Content Type(s):
Background materials
January 11, 2021
Every quarter, the Bank of Canada surveys about 100 firms and publishes the resulting narrative and related data in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). Firms are asked to participate based on several criteria—most importantly, their region, sector and size.
Backgrounder on Business Outlook Survey data by region, sector and firm size
Content Type(s):
Background materials
Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-14
Calista Cheung,
Luke Frymire,
Lise Pichette
We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3
October 19, 2020
Starting with the 2020 autumn survey, the results from a question on labour cost growth are being included in the Business Outlook Survey. This document describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of wages and employment.
Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on wage growth
Content Type(s):
Background materials
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-5
Lise Pichette,
Marie-Noëlle Robitaille
Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C8,
C82,
E,
E3,
E37
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11
Sarah Miller,
David Amirault,
Laurent Martin
Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Firm dynamics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C21,
C8,
C81,
D,
D2,
D22
October 16, 2017
Since the 2016 summer survey, the results from a question on future sales indicators (FSI) have been included in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). This backgrounder briefly describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of business activity.
Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey Question on Future Sales Indicators
Content Type(s):
Background materials
April 6, 2015
Starting with the 2015 spring survey, the results from a question on the intensity of labour shortages are being included in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). This backgrounder briefly describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of pressures on production capacity and labour market conditions.
Backgrounder on the Question in the Business Outlook Survey Concerning the Intensity of Labour Shortages
Content Type(s):
Background materials
November 17, 2011
Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach
This article reviews recent work that uses principal-component analysis to extract information common to indicators from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The authors use correlation analysis and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to assess and compare the information content of the principal component with that of responses to key individual survey questions on growth in real gross domestic product and in real business investment. Results suggest that summarizing the common movements among BOS indicators may provide useful information for forecasting near-term growth in business investment. For growth in real gross domestic product, however, the survey’s balance of opinion on future sales growth appears to be more informative.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Regional economic developments
The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment
Staff Working Paper 2004-15
Monica Martin,
Cristiano Papile
Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Domestic demand and components
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E6,
E66
May 23, 2004
The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Since the autumn of 1997, the regional offices of the Bank of Canada have conducted quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada. Timed to feed into the process that precedes the Bank's fixed dates for announcing monetary policy decisions, the consultations (now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey) are structured around a questionnaire which is sent to 100 firms that reflect the Canadian economy in terms of region, type of business activity, and firm size. Martin describes both the consultation process and the questionnaire and makes an initial assessment of the data gathered during the business interviews. The article includes charts and correlation tables that illustrate the responses to the key questions included in the survey.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Regional economic developments
January 14, 2008
Starting with the winter 2007–08 survey, the results of two additional questions became included in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) publication: the balance of opinion on past sales and the balance of opinion on credit conditions. This backgrounder briefly describes the two questions and presents the correlations between the responses and relevant economic data.
Backgrounder on Questions in the Business Outlook Survey Concerning Past Sales and Credit Conditions
Content Type(s):
Background materials
Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Staff Working Paper 2009-10
Daniel de Munnik,
David Dupuis,
Mark Illing
A number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C8,
C81,
C9,
C90
Statistical Confidence Intervals for the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-7
Daniel de Munnik
While a number of central banks publish their own business conditions indicators that rely on non-random sampling, knowledge about their statistical accuracy has been limited.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C46,
C8,
C81
October 22, 2005
How the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar Has Affected Canadian Firms: Evidence from the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
To track how firms were affected by the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 and the steps they took in response, the Bank included supplementary questions in the quarterly Business Outlook Survey conducted by its regional offices. About half of the firms surveyed reported being adversely affected, one-quarter experienced a favourable impact, and the remainder reported no effect. Jean Mair classifies and summarizes the firms' responses, identifying the sectors that were most and least affected. Causes of the impacts are identified, as well as the actions firms took as a result of the appreciation. The article looks at these actions over time to see what they tell us about firms' adjustment process.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Balance of payments and components,
Exchange rates,
Recent economic and financial developments